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One in Four Public Bitcoin Treasuries Trade Below NAV
A new report from K33 Research reveals that one in four Public Bitcoin Treasuries now trade at market values lower than the worth of their BTC holdings. This trend signals a weakening level of investor confidence in corporate Bitcoin strategies, even as overall BTC adoption among institutions grows.
Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, explained that companies issuing shares below their net asset value (NAV) face dilution risks. For smaller firms, this means they effectively give away more ownership than the capital they raise in return.
The most severe example is NAKA, the merger entity formed by KindlyMD and Nakamoto Holdings. Once trading at 75 times NAV, NAKA now trades at just 0.7x, marking a dramatic collapse of 96% from peak valuation.
K33 Highlights Rising Strain on Smaller Bitcoin Firms
Beyond NAKA, other treasury firms below their NAV include Tether-backed Twenty One, Semler Scientific (NASDAQ:SMLR), and The Smarter Web Company.
While the average NAV multiple across public Bitcoin treasury firms remains at 2.8, that is notably lower than 3.76 in April. The divergence between stronger and weaker firms is widening, with large players still enjoying premiums while smaller entrants slip underwater.
K33 notes that BTC accumulation is also slowing. Treasury firms added just 1,428 BTC per day in September—the weakest pace since May. This shift highlights how spot ETFs and retail inflows are gradually overtaking corporate treasuries as the primary sources of Bitcoin demand.
Lunde described the falling premiums as “rational,” pointing to high advisory fees, insider incentives, and complex corporate structures. However, he acknowledged that firms capable of leveraging their BTC holdings in other business areas can still generate long-term value.
GD Culture Stock Falls After Major Bitcoin Deal
The challenges facing Public Bitcoin Treasuries became even more evident with GD Culture Group (NASDAQ:GDC). Shares in the livestreaming and e-commerce firm plunged 28% following its announcement of an $875 million acquisition of 7,500 BTC from Pallas Capital Holding.
The deal will be financed with 39.2 million new shares, pushing GD Culture into the crypto treasury space. CEO Xiaojian Wang called the pivot a strategic step to diversify assets and capture institutional Bitcoin momentum.
However, investors reacted negatively, citing dilution concerns and speculative risks. GDC’s market capitalization now sits at just $117.4 million, down 97% from its 2021 peak. Analysts from firms like VanEck have long warned that funding Bitcoin purchases with equity can destroy shareholder value if the stock trades below NAV.
MicroStrategy Remains the Bitcoin Treasury Leader
Despite these setbacks for smaller players, established firms continue to dominate. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), under the leadership of Michael Saylor, remains the largest corporate holder with 636,505 BTC. Its strategy has earned both praise and criticism but continues to command a premium valuation.
Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) ranks second with 52,477 BTC, having added 705 BTC in August. Newcomers are also making strides: XXI, founded by Strike CEO Jack Mallers, now holds 43,514 BTC, while the Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company controls 30,021 BTC.
The Future of Public Bitcoin Treasuries
With over 1 million BTC now held by public companies, the role of corporate treasuries in Bitcoin markets remains significant. However, the recent decline in NAV multiples suggests investors are demanding more sustainable models.
Meanwhile, ETFs and retail flows are becoming the main drivers of Bitcoin demand. CME bitcoin futures returning to premiums over offshore perpetuals also indicate a more balanced derivatives market, though leveraged long positions leave room for volatility.
The coming months will test whether Public Bitcoin Treasuries can maintain relevance in a market shifting toward ETFs and retail-driven growth. For smaller firms trading below NAV, the challenge will be surviving dilution risks while convincing investors of long-term value.
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