The crypto market cycle may last longer than many investors expect, according to Raoul Pal, CEO of Global Macro Investor. Pal believes the cycle could extend into the first or even second quarter of 2026, driven by liquidity dynamics and institutional capital flows. His outlook suggests that the traditional four-year rhythm of boom and correction in cryptocurrency could be shifting toward a longer expansion.
Raoul Pal’s “Waiting Room” Analogy
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Pal described the current environment as a “waiting room” for digital assets. He noted that “many key parts of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch,” adding that the market is set for an extended cycle as the global business cycle slows, forcing central banks to keep liquidity conditions loose.
Pal stressed that investors should not expect “tick for tick perfection” but instead focus on the bigger picture. His macroeconomic model, the business cycle score, tracks global liquidity trends and supports his view that more liquidity will fuel risk assets like crypto well into 2026.
Institutional Confidence Supports Longer Cycle
Institutional allocations toward Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain strong despite political tensions and debates over U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Market analyst Enmanuel Cardozo from Brickken explained that the recent pullback in crypto prices was not due to on-chain weakness but external macro factors.
Stablecoin inflows further reinforce this narrative. On Binance, over $1.65 billion in stablecoins has entered the exchange recently, signaling fresh capital waiting to deploy into crypto markets. Since stablecoins serve as the primary funding mechanism for traders, this inflow could mark the beginning of renewed investment activity.
Solana, Sui, and Dogecoin Could Lead Breakouts
Pal highlighted several altcoins positioned to “leave the waiting room” and potentially spark the next leg of the crypto market cycle. According to his analysis:
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Solana (SOL): Trading at around $208.88, Solana is showing a bullish ascending triangle pattern. Pal believes SOL will be the first major altcoin to break out.
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Sui (SUI): At $3.30, Sui could follow Solana’s lead, gaining traction as institutional and retail investors look beyond top-tier assets.
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Dogecoin (DOGE): Once a meme token, Dogecoin has matured into a widely recognized crypto asset. Pal predicts DOGE, priced at $0.214, could be the next altcoin to surge.
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XRP (XRP): Currently at $2.82, XRP is described as “in the process of full porting,” suggesting it is transitioning into a new growth phase.
Beyond these, Pal sees potential in a broader set of large-cap altcoins tracked as “OTHERS,” which may take longer to rally but remain positioned for late-cycle gains.
Historical Parallels to 2017
Pal also compared today’s setup to 2017, when Bitcoin (BTC) skyrocketed by over 1,200% in a single year. He noted that the current crypto market cycle shows “spookily similar” patterns, though with one key difference: macroeconomic conditions may extend the timeline.
A weakening U.S. dollar, combined with institutional positioning and liquidity injections, could stretch this bull cycle into 2026, giving investors more time to benefit from rising digital asset prices.
The Bottom Line on the Crypto Market Cycle
The idea of a prolonged crypto market cycle challenges the traditional four-year framework that many investors have come to expect. With Solana, Sui, Dogecoin, and XRP poised for potential breakouts, and institutional capital flows staying resilient, the stage appears set for a longer-than-expected bull run.
While volatility will remain, the combination of liquidity conditions, institutional adoption, and technical signals suggests that crypto may not peak until well into 2026. For patient investors, this extended cycle could provide significant opportunities in both Bitcoin and the altcoin market.
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